shijitu「史実を世界に発信」
【概説】「史実を世界に発信する会」 茂木弘道
大東亜戦争 日本は「勝利の方程式」を持っていた！
全篇（ハート出版）
茂木 弘道
７９年前の昭和１６年１２月８日、日本は真珠湾攻撃によって、日本の生存を否認するABCD包囲網による経済封鎖という戦争行為に対して、反撃を開始しました。
まさしく追い込まれて、やむを得ず開戦したものですが、しかし、勝利の見込みもなく、ドイツ頼みで無謀な戦争に飛び込んだなどという通説は、全くの見当はずれです。
ほとんどの政府、軍の経済研究所が、戦争に対してきわめて悲観的な見通ししか打ち出していませんでした。しかし、有沢広巳東京大学助教授が主査をつとめる陸軍省戦争経済研究班、通称「秋丸機関」は、仮想敵国の経済戦力を分析し、弱点を把握し、我が方の経済戦力の自給度を見極めた攻防の戦略を打ち立てました。それをもとに、昭和１６年１１月１５日、大本営政府連絡会議で採択された戦争のグランドデザインが、「対米英蘭蔣戦争終末促進に関する腹案」です。
この戦略に沿った戦いを進めれば、日本は勝利する極めて高い可能性があったことを本書では。シミュレーションによって証明しました。イギリスのチャーチル首相が、開戦２年目の１９４２年４月７日付でルーズベルトへの手紙で「今、日本がセイロン島と東部インドからさらに西部インドへ前進してくれば対抗できない。蒋介石ルート、ペルシャ湾経由の石油輸送ルートやソ連支援ルートが遮断される」と悲鳴を上げているのを見れば、いかにこの作戦が有効だったか理解することができましょう。
また、なぜそれが出来なかったのかについても考察しました。
是非お読みいただきたいと思います。
世界の常識とされている「こんな無謀な戦争を開戦に導いた責任ある人々は
無知であり、無分別であり、あるいはその両方であって、同時に、生来、邪悪な人々である。それはとりもなおさず、すべての点で日本は近代性の勝者というべきアメリカの全く正反対存在であるということである。」という差別的、侮蔑的な見方が全く間違っていることを世界に訴えるべく、英訳版が完成しましたので、近々、Kindle版、オン・ディマンド・ペーパーバックでの出版を行う予定です。
日本語原文：https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4802400713/
英訳文：http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL/Japans-Master-Plan-for-Victory.pdf
令和２年１２月８日 「史実を世界に発信する会」 茂木弘道
JAPAN’S MASTER PLAN FOR VICTORY:
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN (complete edition)
By Moteki Hiromichi
Heart Publishers, Tokyo, 2018
History professor James B. Wood of Williams College sums up Western thinking regarding this topic in his book Japanese Military Strategy in the Pacific War: Was Defeat Inevitable?, stating:
“Why were the Japanese so crazy as to take on the United States?” or “How could a country with a GNP about that of Italy or Canada, expect to win?” or “Why should we expect anything else from a country with a feudal warrior code and culture, emperor worship, racial supremacy notions, and a total lack of sympathy or respect for her neighbors?” The implication is that those responsible for Japan’s path to war were ignorant or irrational, perhaps a blend of both, as well as basically evil — a perfectly other counterpoise to the victor of modernity in all respect, the United States.[1]
However, the extremely dismissive view of Westerners has no basis. Japanese leaders were not at all “ignorant”.
On November 15, 1941, three weeks prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese government and Imperial General Headquarters held a liaison conference. Those present discussed the “Draft Proposal for the Promotion of the End of the War Against the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Chiang Kai-shek,” and decided on its execution. I consider this the “master plan”, a plan for victory, and I will lead readers though this with the aid of practical examples throughout my book.
Had Japanese military leaders stuck to this master plan, the outcome of the war would have been very different, an outcome that Winston Churchill feared in his April 15, 1942 letter to Franklin D. Roosevelt:
I must revert to the grave situation in the Indian Ocean … arising from the fact that the Japanese have felt able to detach nearly a third of their battle fleet and half their carriers, which force we are unable to match for several months. The consequences of this may easily be: (A) The loss of Ceylon. (B) Invasion of Eastern India with incalculable internal consequences to our whole war plan and including the loss of Calcutta and of all contact with the Chinese through Burma. But this is only the beginning. Until we are able to fight a fleet action there is no reason why the Japanese should not become the dominating factor in the Western Indian Ocean. This would result in the collapse of our whole position in the Middle East, not only because of the interruption to our convoys to the Middle East and India, but also because of the interruptions to the oil supplies from Abadan, without which we cannot maintain our position either at sea or on land in the Indian Ocean Area. Supplies to Russia via the Persian Gulf would also be cut. With so much of the weight of Japan thrown upon us we have more than we can bear.[2]
The entire volume has been translated and will be soon be published as a Kindle Edition and as a print-on-demand book from Amazon.
URL: http://www.sdh-fact.com/book-article/1630/
PDF: http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL/Japans-Master-Plan-for-Victory.pdf
MOTEKI Hiromichi, Acting Chairman
for KASE Hideaki, Chairman
Society for the Dissemination of Historical Fact
Phone: +81-3-3519-4366
Fax: +81-3-3519-4367
Email moteki@sdh-fact.com
Note: Japanese names are rendered surname first in accordance with Japanese custom.
[1] Wood, James B., Japanese Military Strategy in the Pacific War: Was Defeat Inevitable? (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007), 1.
[2] Kimball, Warren, ed., Churchill & Roosevelt: The Complete Correspondence, vol. 1, Alliance Emerging (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984), 452-3.